Nov 11 2008
Iowa Awaits 2012 Caucuses
According to the Quad City Times, Iowa political honchos are already preparing to hold first-in-the-nation Democratic and Republican party caucuses in January 2012. The Republicans have committed to letting Iowa go first, as it has done since each primary season since 1972.
The only announcement a Democrat has made so far is then-Sen. Barack Obama’s comment in August that he wants to see the election season shortened and would appoint a commission to study the idea. Iowans are holding their breath, extolling their virtues as a key initial test and trying to marshal support.
Democratic National Committee Chair Howard Dean will select 35 panelists to draw the 2012 primary calendar. Florida and Michigan, just like in 2008, are considered the leading challengers to Iowa’s early status.
Frankly, the Democrats don’t have much to do for the 2012 primary. The days of party bosses telling incumbent presidents to stand down ended a century ago. Obama will be the party’s nominee barring something completely unforeseen.
Would-be Republican presidential candidates know Iowa will be pivotal. Past Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee is still living off his surprise win in Iowa 10 months ago. Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin drew huge crowds when she campaigned there this fall. Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal will speak to an Iowa conservative policy group Nov. 22.
Why so soon? To generate support in Iowa and elsewhere. No one is going to announce a presidential bid until after the mid-term Congressional election in Nov. 2010. However, attracting fervent volunteers, the best available staff and a tremendous war chest now will discourage others from running in two or three years.
You won’t hear much about the stealth campaign; potential players will deny everything when asked. Rest assured by the time you’re paying attention, the field of challengers will be narrowed so much that you’ll wonder why those people are running and why someone you’d prefer isn’t being taken seriously. You don’t want to hear this but the 2012 campaign has started.
The other key thing here is that people won’t know that much about candidates when they first start declaring their candidacy. If you can get the voters in Iowa comfortable with you well before the campaign begins, you can have volunteers who are willing to volunteer as soon as they hear you’re running.
If people in Iowa aren’t familiar with you, they may wait to see who else joins the race (especially from their own party) before committing time and money to you.
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