Nov 08 2008
Extending Base Geography Enabled Obama Win
Bill Clinton won 370 electoral votes in 1992. He claimed the following 33 states: Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Vermont, Washington, West Virginia and Wisconsin.
Clinton won 379 electoral votes in 1996. He took 32 states. He carried Arizona in the West but lost Colorado and Montana. He won Florida and dropped Georgia. He won the other 30 states he carried in 1992 again.
Clinton, who was born and raised in Arkansas and had spent a decade as governor of the state, made inroads in the South and Mountain West to add to the traditional Democratic strongholds of the West Coast, New England and the Upper Midwest.
In 2000, Al Gore earned 267 electoral votes, although one elector refused to vote. Gore, a native Tennessean, won nothing in the South. He claimed the following 21 states: California, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington and Wisconsin. Except for New Mexico, Gore’s appeal was limited to his party’s base geography.
John Kerry earned 252 electoral votes in 2004, although one elector cast a ballot for his running mate, John Edwards. Kerry gained New Hampshire to sweep New England but lost New Mexico and was blanked in the mountains and plains. He also lost Iowa and part of the key midwest region.
Barack Obama’s 364 electoral votes this week follow Clinton’s model. Obama first controlled his base geography. He swept the West Coast, Upper Midwest and New England. From there, he added Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico, three mountain west states Clinton won once in two tries. Obama is the third Democratic nominee of the last four to claim New Mexico, after Clinton and Gore.
Obama added Iowa, as did Clinton and Gore. He also won Ohio, one of Clinton’s lynchpins. However, Obama additionally took Indiana, which had been red starting in 1968. Obama won Florida, as did Clinton in 1996. Both men managed a couple of other southern states. In Obama’s case, he was able to extend his electoral dominance past the Potomac River into Virginia and North Carolina, two traditionally red states.
Clinton and George W. Bush won and lost the same states during their reelection bids, with only a few exceptions. Should that pattern hold in 2012, Obama’s prospects for a second term are strong.
You can never count out the Republican base’s ability to mobilize. Obama had better impress in his first term, because if he doesn’t I doubt he would get re-elected.
This is a very interesting account of the States He Won. I was following it on CNN’s boards too.