Aug 22 2008
Expect No Electoral Change with an Obama-Biden Ticket
Senator Barack Obama is supposed to announce his choice for a running mate Saturday morning and be formally introduced with his ticket mate Saturday afternoon in Springfield, Illinois. Springfield is the capital of the state Obama represents in the U.S. Senate and where Obama began his presidential campaign.
Sen. Joe Biden has served in the Senate more than 30 years representative Delaware. He is considered the front-runner now even though Delaware is one of the smallest and least populous states, offering just three electoral votes to the winner in November. The state is reliably blue but Obama would be making the choice more to offer experience–especially in foreign policy–than to win a certain state. Some pundits think Biden can help Obam win neighboring Pennsylvania but I doubt that’s necessary. If Obama can’t win Pennsylvania, he can’t win the election but why would a senator with little, if any, ties to the state help?
Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh and Virginia Governor Tim Kaine were dropped from consideration late today. Before that point, cameras were in front of their houses like they were caught somehow in a police stakeout. Did someone think Gary Glitter was going to visit them? There’s a man who needs people watching his every move.
Anyway, one pundit told an MSNBC host during an interview today, “If it wasn’t television news, it’d be stalking.” Why does television news get a special exemption? How is that any different from standard-issue paparazzi practice? If the reporters were from TMZ, legislators would try to pass laws banning the practice. The good news is it’ll end tomorrow. Oh wait, then Sen. John McCain makes his choice. Get ready for round two.
Good question, Renee. I wish I knew the answer. I know U.S. presidential candidates didn’t campaign at all into the 20th century. They had surrogates campaign on their behalf. The thought was that politics and governing should be separated and that men capable of mudslinging opponents weren’t capable of being president.
Bobby Kennedy announced his candidacy in March 1968, less than eight months before the election and less than three months before he was assassinated. Bill Clinton declared his intent to run in October 1991, 13 months before the election. The candidates this time have been running since 2006. My guess about the reason is candidates need ever-increasing amounts of money to fund the campaign. Traveling across the country, hiring staff, buying airtime and producing advertisements are expensive endeavors.
Thanks for letting me know, by the way. I’d finally turned off the news channels and started watching Olympic coverage.
Biden has been a U.S. senator for 36 of his 65 years. He was elected in 1972 at age 29 but turned 30 before he began his first term in January 1973, as required under the Constitution. I was born in 1973 so Biden has served the entire time I’ve been alive.
It’s clear Obama wanted to add experience to his ticket, rather than offer the least-experienced national slate in history. Reminds me a bit of Kennedy-Johnson in 1960. Pundits have cited Bush-Cheney in 2000. Hillary Clinton wasn’t a realistic option. She doesn’t have much more experience than does Obama, unless she counts her husband. I doubt Obama wants to count Bill Clinton.
There are rumors the Hillary supporters will complain during the convention but they have to realize Obama is better than McCain for the issues they support. Unless they want another Republican in the White House, they will return to the fold in November.
There’s no way anyone can be elected continuously for 36 years and avoid the Washington social scene. Taking the train home each day isn’t an option for most senators so Joe Biden is lucky in that regard. Without working with others within Washington, no one has the ability to get anything done in the Senate. Sure, the steel workers endorsed Biden. They weren’t going to endorse John McCain, the free trader.
Unlike a lot of others, I’m convinced Obama will win Pennsylvania regardless of his running mate. If he loses Pennsylvania, that means the tide will be squarely against him and he’ll lose several key states that would render Pennsylvania meaningless anyway. Biden doesn’t hurt Obama but doesn’t really help him.